A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
President Trump's massive tax and spending bill has passed a major hurdle. Vice President Vance broke a tie in the Senate, and the legislation now goes back to the House for final approval. Now, despite policy concerns, Republicans largely rallied behind the bill and the president to seemingly give him the win.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: It's a great bill. There is something for everyone, and I think it's going to go very nicely in the House. Actually, I think it will be easier in the House than it was in the Senate.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson joins us now to discuss the politics around this. So Mara, just to be clear, nothing official about President Trump's Fourth of July deadline for this, right? So even though the bill hasn't gotten past the finish line yet, would you consider this a win for the president so far?
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Yes, I do. This was a win for the president, especially because he had such a narrow margin in the Senate. He could only afford to lose three votes. He lost three votes, and JD Vance had to break the tie. The bill still has to pass the House, and there are a lot of hurdles there to overcome. But the president has a very firm grip on his party, and this bill includes almost his entire legislative agenda packed into one vehicle.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. OK. So a win, but still disagreement within the party, though. Where has been the tension for Republicans?
LIASSON: Yes. That's right. There are a lot of Republicans in the House - conservative Republicans, fiscal hawks - who don't like the fact that the Senate bill adds trillions more dollars to the deficit than their original bill. There are also moderate Republicans from high-tax blue states who don't like the way the Senate bill treats the deduction for state and local taxes. So there are lots of hurdles in the House, but the president has made this personal. He said that a vote against this bill would be considered a betrayal. And in the Trump era, if you are a Republican and you vote against the president, you do so at your own political peril. He's made very clear he'll go after anyone who doesn't vote with him. He'll back primary challenges to Republicans.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. So assuming it does pass both chambers and President Trump signs this into law, is this something that's going to be popular with Americans?
LIASSON: Well, that is the big political question. We know so far from polling that voters don't like the idea of cutting taxes for billionaires and paying for them by taking people off of Medicaid. Every independent analysis has said that this bill would add trillions to the deficit, and it's skewed to the wealthy, and it could push nearly 12 million people off of Medicaid. We know there are a lot of Trump voters - blue-collar voters - on Medicaid. One of the reasons is that Obamacare was a giant Medicaid expansion bill. That's why people like Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina decided to end his career, not run again. Instead of bucking Trump, he has said that Republicans are making a dangerous political decision by cutting Medicaid because Democrats are going to run against this bill saying it hurts working families in order to help billionaires.
MARTÍNEZ: So what will the Republican counterargument be?
LIASSON: Republicans are going to say, we made sure you didn't get a tax hike. That's because this bill extends the tax cuts that Trump put in place in his first term when he passed a similar tax cut bill. And that might be a hard argument to deliver because people aren't going to see much difference in their tax bills. But in the first term, Trump's tax bill was very unpopular. It's one of the reasons that Trump lost the House in the first term, and it is bound to become a front-line issue in the upcoming midterm elections.
MARTÍNEZ: So one more thing, because President Trump apparently has a feud with Elon Musk that is on and off, and now it's on again, I think. So...
LIASSON: Yes.
MARTÍNEZ: ...Tell us about what's happening there. Yeah.
LIASSON: On again, the Musk-Trump feud continues. Musk has been very critical of this bill because how much it adds to the deficit. He's called the GOP the Porky Pig Party. He said that it cuts investments in green energy. Of course, that would include the EV subsidies that help people buy Teslas, Musk's company. Trump says Musk is just looking out for his own business interests. He says that he might have to take a look at all of the money that Musk gets from the government. He said he would even, quote, "take a look" at deporting Elon Musk. So we don't know what Musk will do with his money in the 2026 elections. He spent almost $300 million...
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
LIASSON: ...To help Trump get elected in 2024.
MARTÍNEZ: That's NPR's Mara Liasson. Thanks, Mara.
LIASSON: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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