STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
As we've heard, France and the U.K. both say they're preparing to recognize Palestine, maybe. Three-fourths of the nations around the world have already done this. In theory, many nations, including the U.S., have supported a two-state solution, a Palestinian state alongside Israel, for many years, and some Palestinian groups have supported the idea.
Israel's longtime prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, once reluctantly endorsed the concept, but in more recent years has insisted on something well short of a full Palestinian state. With us in our studios to look at this is Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Welcome to the program.
JON ALTERMAN: Thank you very much.
INSKEEP: Thanks for coming by Studio 31. What is the purpose of the U.K. and France saying now, we're not actually going to recognize a Palestinian state, but we're getting ready to?
ALTERMAN: Well, I think in many ways it's different. France, I think, is trying both to build a relationship with Saudi Arabia to build its international stature, doing something...
INSKEEP: Oh, because the Saudis want a two-state solution. OK, go on.
ALTERMAN: Well, I think a lot of countries do...
INSKEEP: Sure.
ALTERMAN: ...And France sees itself, if the U.S. isn't going to play a leading role, then France can play a leading role. I think with the U.K., it's partly driven by British politics, it's partly driven by a sense of how can you split the difference between international opinion, between the United States? They have said we're going to consider it and gives the Israelis time to do things to avert it. I think they see that as a way to build leverage, and Britain thinks a lot about how do they have leverage in international affairs when they're not a major superpower, but they feel they have a leading role, responsibility, concern, and I think the British want to be relevant...
INSKEEP: Yeah.
ALTERMAN: ...To ending this war and moving on.
INSKEEP: So are they not really planning to recognize a Palestinian state? They just want to threaten Israel with that to get Israel to end the war?
ALTERMAN: I think they want to incentivize Israel to take steps they want Israel to take. And certainly, there are a lot of steps I can imagine Israel taking. The Knesset is out until October, and that gives Prime Minister Netanyahu the opportunity to make agreements, to make deals, without threatening the collapse of his government. That certainly was a problem he's been dealing with in recent months.
And this perhaps gives him some wiggle room to do things that the British and others want him to do.
INSKEEP: What sorts of things are we talking about here?
ALTERMAN: We could talk about increasing aid into Gaza. We could talk about a ceasefire. We could talk about a deal to get hostages back. There are some people in his government who are adamantly opposed to doing anything when Hamas still has any relevance on the ground. I think the feeling of a lot of the Arab states and some of the European states is Hamas can't be a fighting force, but you can't - it's too embedded in Palestinian society to totally eliminate it, get rid of some of the leadership, get the hostages back, let's move on, because what's happening in Gaza just isn't sustainable.
INSKEEP: When we think about the Palestinian people, when I've been there, when I've interviewed Palestinians, you get the sense that maybe they're not for killing Israelis, but they're for the general idea of Hamas' ideology. Isn't that the case?
ALTERMAN: The polling - it depends how you ask the question. I think a lot of the polling has shifted, and certainly in Gaza, more people are hostile to Hamas because of what Hamas' actions have called (ph). But there are a number of Palestinians who feel the only way is resistance because the more we cooperate, the more the Israelis take advantage.
INSKEEP: Oh, this is very interesting. People who are governed by Hamas may not be so favorable to Hamas because they are oppressed, is what you're saying.
ALTERMAN: And they have to deal with Hamas' hostility and brutality toward Palestinians, and they've dealt with the consequences of the action Hamas took in October 2023.
INSKEEP: Getting back to the idea of a Palestinian state. When we think about what a country is, what you would recognize as an independent nation, is there a there there? Is there anything to recognize?
ALTERMAN: I don't really think so. I mean, we don't have a defined territory. We have a president who is 16 years after the expiry of his term. He doesn't control what happens in either the West Bank or Gaza. I understand the desire for symbolism, but it doesn't seem to me that recognizing a state that clearly doesn't exist really moves the ball forward.
INSKEEP: Even with that said, is it possible, from a Palestinian perspective, or is there a risk of, from an Israeli perspective, that worldwide sympathy for civilians in Gaza would advance the Palestinian cause in some way?
ALTERMAN: Now, I think there is. And, you know, one of the challenges here is Israel is a complicated democracy, and I think the missing link here is, how do you convince Israelis that there is a there there, that there is peace after security? But depending on which poll, two-thirds, three-quarters of Israelis think that a two-state solution threatens Israeli security. Unless you can address that number, I think it's very hard to make a lot of progress.
INSKEEP: Decades ago, there was more Israel support for a two-state solution.
ALTERMAN: Much more.
INSKEEP: And it's gone down and down. Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, thanks for your insights. Good to see you.
ALTERMAN: Thank you, Steve. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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