By Drew Adams
http://stream.publicbroadcasting.net/production/mp3/wkms/local-wkms-998563.mp3
Murray, KY – Kentucky has been wrought with adverse weather this year. Nationwide, before 2011 the record of weather related incidents costing a billion dollars or more in a single year topped out at 9. This year was different.
"We shattered that record with seventeen separate or severe weather events, that's an incredible number when you put it into perspective."
That's Beau Dodson, McCracken County's Emergency Management Meteorologist. With so much damage across the country and in the Four Rivers Region, it would be easy to assume adverse effects to agriculture. Farmers rely on a specific window of manageable weather to plant, cultivate and process their crops. And when harsh weather strikes it can threaten the year's harvest.
"For those who live along rivers, or perhaps low-land, farmers who need to get out in their fields, They curse this type of pattern."
Dodson says weather patterns in 2011 were about as far from the norm as you can get. Take rainfall in Paducah in the last 29 years, the city's yearly average is 35" of rain. According to the National Weather Service, as of December 15th, Paducah more than doubled that amount with 76" of rainfall. Much of it occurred during spring planting season, peaking in April. Add to the rain, 70 recorded tornadoes and substantial flooding and we have what looks like the perfect storm. So how did Farmers save their crops in the midst of this rough weather? According to Marshall County Ag Extension Agent, Lincoln Martin farmers adjusted their schedules:
"That certainly delayed planting in bottom fields pretty seriously. It delayed hay harvest, it delayed corn planting, it delayed soy bean planting, delayed setting tobacco. Everything got pushed forward beyond optimum time for putting the seed in the ground."
Planting delays can have unintended consequences. Take corn for instance: Corn was planted later, leaving it to grow through this year's hot and dry summer, not allowing it to grow to its full potential. More so, Corn was forced to grow later into the fall, subjecting it to the year's second round of major storms. These storms knocked much of the crop off their stalks and further effected yields.
"And that really slows down harvest when you have to pick corn up off the ground with your combine instead of it standing upright, when you go can get through the field fairly quickly. That was a frustration and I do know that a lot of our corn growers stopped harvesting corn because it was not dry enough and moved onto their soybeans. It's a yield reduction."
But these weather related problems did present a silver lining: and that lining was commodity pricing. Droughts in Texas and Oklahoma killed yields and many other parts of the country saw lower output as well which resulted in higher grain prices. This was especially true for wheat, the only Purchase area crop to outperform yield expectations. University of Kentucky's Plant and Soil Science professor Lloyd Murdock says he was surprised.
"I'm just kind of shocked at the yields that we got to be honest with you. Because anytime you start out with the tremendous amount of rain that we had and with the wheat that we had I would expect it to suffer from saturated conditions in the root zones, but it did not."
The large wheat yield wasn't the only boon in Kentucky agricultural pricing. Prices for corn, soybeans and other products were at record levels in 2011. While farmers brought less to market, they were still able to walk away with more money than previous years. In fact, 2011 will go down as the highest grossing year to date. Cash receipts for 2011 are looking to top out at $5.3 billion. This is the first time in Kentucky's history that agricultural receipts have reached above the five billion dollar mark. The total is also significantly higher than the $4.4 billion earned in 2010, a year with far milder weather. UK Ag Economist Will Snell sums 2011:
"I guess the real story behind agriculture this past year has been record prices: All in all just a great year if you look at gross and net income for Kentucky farmers."
In the midst of tornadoes, unrelenting rainfall and unseasonable temperatures Kentucky agriculture came out on top. And as Kentucky farmers look forward to 2012, can they expect more of the same? Agricultural economists say commodity prices are expected to drop from their current levels, however, should yields rise, Kentucky agriculture could be looking forward to another five billion dollar plus year.