Kentucky voters head to the polls Tuesday morning to vote in the primary election, where they will choose the Republican and Democratic nominees for the general election this fall.
In addition to primaries for local offices across the state, voters will cast their ballots for state and federal offices in races that have blanketed airwaves and mailboxes with political advertisement.
The two most expensive and contentious primaries have involved President Donald Trump, as he backs two Republican candidates for U.S. Senate and House and seeks to expand the number of fully compliant GOP allies in Congress.
The GOP race to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell pits Trump-endorsed Congressman Andy Barr against former Attorney General Daniel Cameron, where total spending has exceeded $50 million.
Nearly matching that spending is Congressman Thomas Massie’s reelection bid in his northern Kentucky district, where groups backing the Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein have blitzed the district with ad spending. The campaigns and aligned PACs have spent more than $32 million — an all-time record for any House primary.
Voters will also choose party nominees in the open race for Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, which is being vacated by Barr. Though Republicans are expected to have an advantage this fall no matter who makes it to the general election, this district will be the most competitive among the state’s U.S. House races.
There are also numerous primary races for seats in the Kentucky General Assembly, where Republicans are all but assured to maintain their dominant supermajority going into the 2027 session.
Here are some of the big state and federal races to watch as the results come in Tuesday night.
The race to replace McConnell
The Republican primary for the U.S. Senate was suddenly upturned on the eve of the Kentucky Derby this month, when Trump nearly simultaneously announced he had convinced Nate Morris to drop out of the primary and endorsed Barr.
Much of the race had been consumed by PAC attack ads pitting Morris against Barr on their claims of who was the most supportive of Trump. Despite being massively outspent by his two opponents, Cameron stayed competitive in polling through April.
Barr’s endorsement changed the dynamics of the race, as he and supportive PACs have completely dominated the airwaves over the final three weeks of the race, with polls showing the race breaking in his favor.
Some familiar names are running on the Democratic side, as candidates Amy McGrath and Charles Booker again seek the party’s nomination. McGrath edged Booker in the 2020 primary before losing to McConnell in the general election that year, while Booker won the Senate nomination in 2022 before losing to Sen. Rand Paul.
The dark horse candidate in the Democratic primary is Dale Romans, a successful thoroughbred trainer who is billing himself as the most moderate candidate who could compete in the conservative state’s general election.
A Democratic candidate hasn’t won a Senate seat in Kentucky since 1992 as the state’s voters shifted rightward, but the party hopes Trump’s declining popularity could give them a longshot chance to take back McConnell’s seat this fall.
Thomas Massie’s potential last stand versus Trump
Trump has successfully knocked out several GOP incumbents across the country that he deemed insufficiently obedient to his whims, and the next target on his list is Massie.
Though Massie usually votes with Republicans in the House, he has consistently been a thorn in Trump’s side, especially when it comes to his insistence on the release of the Epstein files and his opposition to the war with Iran.
Trump sought a challenger to take on Massie and found one last year in Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL who the president rallied for in northern Kentucky in March.
The record-breaking $32 million of ad spending in the race has been extraordinary, with most coming from outside PACs. Of the $17 million in TV attack ads, two-thirds have been against Massie, which are mostly funded by prominent pro-Israel GOP donors.
Massie’s political career has been one defined by his independence and willingness to buck the party over small-government principles, but his race could indicate whether such candidates can survive within a party that increasingly stresses loyalty to Trump.
Parties choose nominee for Barr’s open congressional seat
With Barr choosing to run for Senate, both parties will choose their nomination in the 6th Congressional District which surrounds Lexington in central Kentucky.
On the Republican side, the odds-on favorite to win is the Trump-endorsed Ralph Alvarado, a former state senator who left office in 2023 to run Tennessee’s health agency.
Facing off against Alvarado in his return to Kentucky politics is state Rep. Ryan Dotson and Greg Plucinski, who founded a biotech and pharmaceutical company.
The race for the Democratic side has a large field of candidates. Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor, has led the way in fundraising and spending, picking up endorsements from former Congressman Ben Chandler and former Lexington Mayor Jim Gray.
Also running for the nomination is Cherlynn Stevenson, a former member of Democratic leadership in the Kentucky House who is endorsed by Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman.
The Democratic candidates also include David Kloiber, a former Lexington city councilman who employs artificial intelligence to write letters to voters, and Erin Petrey, a former Amazon Web Services worker who is now calling for a statewide moratorium on new data center projects.
PACs spending big on GOP primaries for Kentucky House
Republicans control at least 80% of the seats in both chambers of the Kentucky General Assembly and are expected to maintain roughly the same percentage next year, as Democrats left many seats unchallenged.
While Republicans will maintain their supermajority, independent PACs have still spent $1.6 million on ads in GOP primary races, seeking to influence who will hold those seats.
Some of the Republican seats will assuredly change hands in open primary races, as seven incumbents in the House and one in the Senate chose not to run for reelection.
Even some GOP incumbents running for reelection are facing tough primary challenges, especially in the northern Kentucky region, where several incumbents have faced upset defeats in recent years.
Two House GOP incumbents in the region facing tough primary races this time around are Reps. Kim Moser and Kim Banta, whose opponents have attacked their 2023 votes against a bill banning gender-affirming healthcare services for transgender minors. Moser and Banta have been aided by $300,000 of spending from independent PACs funded by business groups, as well as party leadership.
Also in northern Kentucky, two House GOP incumbents from what’s known as the “liberty” wing of the party are facing relatively moderate primary challengers. Rep. Felicia Rabourn is facing a primary rematch against Mark Gilkison, with the challenger supported by ads from the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce and two PACs funded by the sports betting industry and the Jefferson County teachers union. Rep. Steven Doan is also facing Jesse Forman, who has also received supportive ads from the teachers union PAC.
Another GOP primary rematch is in west Kentucky, where Rep. Kim Holloway is facing Richard Heath, the longtime incumbent in the region who lost in an upset to her in 2024. Holloway has been aided this time by $312,000 of ads in her favor by Kentucky Conservative Fund, the PAC entirely funded by sports betting companies. The PAC has spent more than $830,000 on ads supporting seven different GOP incumbents.
In the Senate chamber, Sen. Brandon Smith of Hazard is seeking a sixth term in office, but facing a challenge from House Rep. Bill Wesley of Ravenna, who has served in that chamber since 2021. GOP leadership and the sports betting PAC have spent heavily on ads supporting Smith.
Louisville voters set to pick Democratic nominees for Frankfort
Some of the most competitive legislative primaries on the Democratic side are in Louisville, where much of the party’s remaining seats are located.
Rep. Daniel Grossberg is seeking another term in House District 30, facing opposition from not just two primary opponents, but many Democratic Party leaders. Gov. Andy Beshear is among the Democrats calling on Grossberg to resign from office, after allegations of sexual harassment or misconduct from nine different women dating back two decades. Grossberg has denied the allegations and says he’s the victim of antisemetic targeting.
Rep. Beverly Chester-Burton is another Democratic incumbent in Louisville who is attempting to be reelected amid scandal, as she was sentenced last year for driving while intoxicated, the second time she’s faced such a conviction in five years. Her two Democratic opponents also have recent criminal convictions.
Also in Louisville, two Democrats are seeking the party’s nomination to replace outgoing Rep. Pamela Stevenson, who is among the candidates running for U.S. Senate. Robert LeVertis Bell is a public school teacher and democratic socialist, while Joi McAtee is a graduate instructor at the University of Louisville.
In the Senate chamber, two Democrats are running for an east Louisville district, where they will likely take on three-term Republican Sen. Julie Raque Adams in the general election. The candidates are former University of Louisville basketball player Luke Whitehead and Sarah Cole McIntosh, a former member of the Jefferson County Board of Education.
