In the second such shift toward Democrats, independent election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional district — which voted for President Donald Trump by 15 points in 2024 — a “leans Republican” district.
Republican Ralph Alvarado, the former Tennessee Health Commissioner and Kentucky state senator, faces off against former federal prosecutor and veteran Zach Dembo, a Democrat. Almost every pollster rated the race a safe Republican seat after U.S. Rep. Andy Barr announced he would run for Senate, giving up the seat he won by nearly 27 points in 2024.
In announcing the shift, the political newsletter out of The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia pointed to Alvarado’s choice to remove nearly all references to Trump from his website, despite campaigning heavily on his endorsement in the primary. It’s the second time Sabato’s has upgraded the race — from safe to likely to “leans Republican”
“Considering that the district backed Trump by 15 points in 2024, it would not strike us as the type of place where a Republican would normally want to keep Trump at arm’s length,” wrote J. Miles Coleman, an associate editor. “But it is often more competitive down the ballot, and a slightly less red version of this district was a near-miss for Democrats in 2018.”
Two other political forecasters have also shifted Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional’s rating. Both Cook Political Report and Inside Elections moved the race from “solid” to “likely Republican” over the past few months. That means they still consider the race to be safe for Republicans, but “have the potential to become engaged.”
Dembo has frequently criticized Alvarado for his association with former Gov. Matt Bevin with whom he ran as lieutenant governor in his failed 2019 gubernatorial reelection bid. Dembo has promoted his ties to Gov. Andy Beshear instead, who won the district in 2023 by 20 points, exceeding Trump’s win the following year.
Dembo, who has run on fighting corruption in Washington, said in a statement the people of his district are tired of politicians who “forget about the people they’re supposed to represent.”
“This race has moved in our direction because folks believe in our message: ban congressional stock trading, end the Iran war, roll back these reckless tariffs, and lower costs for working families,” Dembo said. “People want change here in Central Kentucky. In November, we’re going to deliver that change.”
In a statement, Alvarado’s campaign manager Andy Westberry cast doubt on Sabato’s ability to predict elections, saying they have a “track record” of overpredicting in favor of Democrats.
“You should ask the staff at Sabato’s Crystal Ball how President Kamala Harris is doing,” Westberry said. “They had her winning with 276 electoral votes in 2024. At this point, ‘Crystal Ball’ might qualify as false advertising.”
Multiple recent polls show Trump’s approval rating underwater in Kentucky by a net 10 points or more as the continued U.S war in Iran drives up prices at the pump, and inflation and interest rates remain high.
This story has been updated to include a comment from Alvarado's campaign.
