A poll released Tuesday shows a dead heat between the top four Republican candidates vying to succeed former U.S. Rep. Mark Green in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.
The poll, conducted by Spry Strategies for Americans for Prosperity Tennessee — a conservative political advocacy group — polled 500 registered voters in the district who said they plan to vote in the Oct. 7 primary.
Williamson County state Reps. Gino Bulso of Brentwood and Lee Reeves of Franklin tied with 19.9% each when respondents were asked to select their preference during the Aug, 19 to Aug. 23 polling period. Dickson Rep. Jody Barrett followed with 18.6% and Matt Van Epps, former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, came in fourth with 15.9%.
There was significant dropoff after Van Epps, with Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight coming in next with 7.9%.
The poll has a 4.4% margin of error.
Eleven Republicans, four Democrats and four independent candidates are competing for the chance to replace Green in Congress. The winners of the primary elections — and all the independents, who aren’t on the primary ballot — will face off in the Dec. 2 general election.
The 7th District is made up of portions of Davidson, Williamson and Montgomery counties as well as 11 other counties in Middle and West Tennessee. It’s considered heavily favorable to Republicans even after 2021 redistricting drew in portions of traditionally Democratic Davidson County: President Donald Trump won the district in 2024 by 22.3%.
Typically, special elections draw lighter turnout than regularly-scheduled ones and wins are often predicated on how well a candidate turns their supporters out. Across the nation, Democrats have been faring well in special elections.
When asked what issue they most want the next congressman to focus on, respondents ranked “government corruption and the deep state” highest, with 22.7% of respondents citing it.
The AFP poll was released in conjunction with Supertalk 99.7 WTN, which features nationally syndicated conservative talk shows. The two will host a debate among the Republican candidates on Sept. 5 in Nashville.
