As early voting kicks off in Tennessee’s primary election, U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn is still considered the Republican frontrunner in the race for governor.
Recent polling shows that the gap between Blackburn and Tennessee Congressman John Rose could be tightening as she refuses to debate her Republican opponents for the Aug. 6 primary. However, she still has a double-digit lead in the race.
If elected, Blackburn would be the state’s first female governor — and the oldest person to assume the office at 74 years old.
The full ballot
Blackburn, Rose and State Rep. Monty Fritts have all campaigned on supporting President Trump, even if he likely won’t make an endorsement because of his dual loyalties to Blackburn and Rose.
On the campaign trail, Rose has touted his background as a former Tennessee agricultural commissioner. Fritts has positioned himself as a political outsider, having only served in the state legislature and not in Washington.
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Finance reports released this week show that Blackburn raised 10 times the amount Rose did in the most recent fiscal quarter. The majority of Rose’s — and all of Fritts’ — contributions came from the state of Tennessee, while the majority of Blackburn’s came from out-of-state donors in places like California, Florida and Washington, D.C.
Blackburn has refused to debate either candidate, instead saying that she prefers to speak directly with constituents.
On top of polling and fundraising totals, Blackburn’s refusal to debate may be another sign of her success.
The incumbent strategy
When the Tennessee Firearms Association sent out questionnaires to Republican hopefuls for governor, Blackburn was the only candidate who didn’t respond.
TFA Executive Director John Harris said that’s usually the case with incumbents. Campaign managers advise candidates against doing surveys from any organization if they’re running unopposed or have a significant lead.
But some still do, “because they feel like being open or candid with the voters is better than concealing where they stand on issues,” Harris said.
When the state’s current governor, Bill Lee, first ran for office, Harris said he didn’t complete the TFA survey, but he did write a letter outlining what he would do for Second Amendment rights if he were elected.
Blackburn, he said, hasn’t talked much about gun ownership at all.
“We think that’s very concerning,” Harris said. “She hasn’t even risen to the level that Governors Lee and Haslam did, nor has she risen to the level of her two challengers.”
Vanderbilt political scientist John Geer said it’s a common strategy for candidates who are ahead in a race. Blackburn is in a much more precarious position as the frontrunner in a Republican primary rather than a general election.
“You’re talking about Republicans choosing among fellow Republicans, and there aren’t a lot of differences on policy,” Geer said. “People’s preferences are not going to be so set in stone.”
For Blackburn, a debate would be high risk, low reward.
“A debate is not going to allow her to become more of a frontrunner. But if she has some misstep, or Rose, for example, does really, really well, maybe all of a sudden it becomes a more competitive race.”
If she does agree to debate, Geer said, that’s a sign that she could be losing ground.
Small “d” democratic
In ruby red Tennessee, statewide races are usually decided during the primaries, where voter turnout is lower. Often, a select few Republicans are choosing candidates for the rest of the state.
Harris said it’s “disappointing,” especially during a midterm election.
“In our experience… a year like this, where you don’t have that presidential influence, the voter turnout has been extremely low,” Harris said. “A very small handful of engaged citizens are making the choices as to which individuals will make public policy considerations for them and everyone else.”
Geer said it’s become a problem across the country, where primaries have dominated the political landscape.
“We want to see as many people vote as possible, to get not only as legitimate an outcome as possible, but also to make sure that politicians are going to reflect the preferences of as many voters as possible,” Geer said. “That’s going to make it a little bit more small ‘D’ democratic.”
Early voting starts Friday, July 17 and runs through Saturday, Aug. 1. Primary election day is Aug. 6. Learn more about how and where to vote here.
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